Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 212.797342 259.793320 318.446412 398.443481 506.999969 6.527112e+02 8.694970e+02
2025-05-11 159.983422 213.730276 289.776526 409.969502 604.964376 9.291120e+02 1.561148e+03
2025-05-18 129.073973 183.136579 266.523934 413.272524 687.006984 1.233000e+03 2.612987e+03
2025-05-25 107.327647 158.961608 243.768979 405.719586 743.614168 1.532430e+03 4.094383e+03
2025-06-01 91.376592 139.839539 223.410679 393.788811 784.203851 1.832988e+03 6.205039e+03
2025-06-08 79.336823 124.646338 205.935691 380.968786 816.019177 2.145547e+03 9.304275e+03
2025-06-15 75.591501 122.921258 212.421549 420.080903 999.662141 3.156645e+03 2.147042e+04
2025-06-22 68.935205 114.699602 204.371150 423.512995 1088.785602 3.976896e+03 4.167025e+04
2025-06-29 64.387172 109.654878 201.645748 439.046388 1228.903478 5.334824e+03 1.055423e+05
2025-07-06 59.057140 102.284650 192.499107 434.971701 1300.835240 6.525922e+03 2.566540e+05
2025-07-13 57.590529 102.358724 199.733159 478.919209 1599.682027 1.045551e+04 3.070011e+06
2025-07-20 55.792660 101.456386 204.522293 518.113789 1927.612672 1.685527e+04 NaN
2025-07-27 53.314953 98.980596 205.606600 548.665638 2272.387256 2.763273e+04 NaN
2025-08-03 50.416569 95.208486 202.783285 565.718480 2579.142263 4.398198e+04 NaN
2025-08-10 47.353569 90.664999 197.101614 570.642756 2828.053039 6.746793e+04 NaN
2025-08-17 44.050846 85.177427 187.931436 559.099626 2951.848965 9.383060e+04 NaN
2025-08-24 40.898505 79.697845 177.913623 540.962252 3008.599326 1.242379e+05 NaN
2025-08-31 38.049695 74.640454 168.312707 521.561434 3037.897779 1.620249e+05 NaN
2025-09-07 37.795096 75.709771 176.301566 581.015143 3959.196070 6.363961e+05 NaN
2025-09-14 36.029222 72.909195 172.481619 586.269825 4340.563397 1.581748e+06 NaN
2025-09-21 34.855846 71.445192 172.453170 610.126583 5052.764125 9.717650e+06 NaN
2025-09-28 33.091298 68.318858 166.796717 603.856835 5346.721600 5.805726e+07 NaN
2025-10-05 32.968386 69.354049 174.477113 671.908434 7188.447671 NaN NaN